Embedded Files
Helpful prior knowledge and learning objectives
Helpful prior knowledge and learning objectives
Helpful prior learning:
Section 1.1.1 The economy and you, which explains what an economy is and how it is relevant to students’ lives
Section 1.1.2 The embedded economy, which explains the relationship between the economy and society and Earth’s systems
Section 5.1.1 The state as a system, which defines the state, its parts and their relationships, and some ways to classify states
Section 5.1.2 Origins, legitimacy and power of states, which explains how states came about, how they gain legitimacy and maintain power
Section 5.1.3 Functions of the state, which explains the various roles of the state in providing goods and services, protecting the population, and stabilising and guiding change
Section 5.1.4 Balancing state and non-state power, which explain the importance of balancing state and non-state economic power and strategies to achieve such a balance
Section 5.1.5 State narratives: Neoliberalism, which describes the neoliberal narrative and explains how it came to dominate economic thinking
Section S.1 What are systems?, which explains what a system is, the importance of systems boundaries, the difference between open and closed systems and the importance of systems thinking
Section S.2 Systems thinking patterns, which outlines the core components of systems thinking: distinctions (thing/other), systems (part/whole), relationships (action/reaction), and perspectives (point/view)
Section S.5 Causal loops, feedback and tipping points, which explains the feedback loops that can stabilise or destabilise systems.
Section S.9 System traps, which explains how system structures, like reinforcing feedback, too weak or late balancing feedback, and/or pursuing flawed goals, can create persistent problems.
Learning objectives:
discuss how planetary boundary overshoot threatens the state’s ability to meet human needs within planetary boundaries
In 2024, Mexico City faced a severe water crisis, known as 'Day Zero.' Reservoirs dried up after a long drought linked to climate change. Overuse of groundwater caused land to sink, damaging pipelines. Millions had no tap water. Schools closed, hospitals ran low on supplies, and businesses paused operations. This showed how exceeding Earth's environmental limits, known as planetary boundary overshoot, makes it harder for states to meet people’s basic needs.
Figure 1. In summer 2024, severe drought in Mexico affected water supplies in Mexico City.
(Credit: NASA Earth Observatory)
Figure 2. Satellite images in 2022 and 2024 of Valle de Bravo, one of three major reservoirs that store water for Mexico City. 2024 water levels are far lower than 2022.
(Credit: NASA Earth Observatory)
What are planetary boundaries and what does it mean to overshoot them?
Humans are part of nature. Like other organisms, our activities affect surrounding ecosystems. Scientists have identified nine key areas of human disturbance to Earth systems. If these disturbances, such as farming, manufacturing, and building cities, become too great, we lose the conditions that sustain life. These limits are called planetary boundaries (Section 1.2.7). Scientists use computer models to define these boundaries. The green area inside the dotted line in the planetary boundaries model (Figure 3) is the safe zone. Going beyond it is overshooting.
Earth systems are connected. Overshooting one boundary often affects others. For example, climate change worsens biodiversity loss, and deforestation speeds up climate change. Crossing these boundaries can trigger tipping points, sudden changes to Earth systems (Section S.5) that seriously threaten the humans and other living organisms.
Figure 3. Planetary boundaries model
(Credit: Stockholm Resilience Centre CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
How does overshoot impact state functions?
Overshooting planetary boundaries causes extreme weather, resource scarcity, and ecosystem loss. These impacts weaken states. The Doughnut Economics model (Section 1.3.4) explains this. The state helps meet people’s needs, shown in the model as the ‘social foundation.’ But planetary boundary overshoot, shown in the model as the ‘ecological ceiling,’ makes this harder (Figure 4). Worryingly, the areas of the world that have caused the least disturbance to the ecological ceiling are likely to see the most negative impacts on the social foundation and state function.
Figure 4. The Doughnut Economics model shows the ‘safe and just space for humanity’. The state helps people meet the social foundation, but planetary boundary overshoot makes this harder.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Providing essential services
Providing essential services
When planetary boundaries are crossed, states struggle to provide food, water, and energy (Figure 5). During the 2024 crisis in Mexico City, the government had to truck in water. In Ethiopia and Somalia, droughts have led to crop failures and hunger. In India, heatwaves overwhelm power grids as people use more air conditioning. If temperatures keep rising, energy systems may fail (Figure 6).
Figure 5. Planetary boundary overshoot hinders the ability of states to provide the essentials of food, water, energy in the social foundation.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Figure 6. As India warms, air conditioning becomes a necessity, straining the energy grid and raising outside temperatures further, especially in cities.
(Credit: licensed from Adobe Stock)
Infrastructure under stress
Infrastructure under stress
Infrastructure includes roads, bridges, power grids, and water systems. These physical systems are essential to meeting human needs (Figure 7) and extreme weather damages them. In January 2025, wildfires in Los Angeles destroyed over 9 000 buildings and disrupted power and transport, costing an estimated $250 billion. In Bangladesh, floods and cyclones often wash away roads and homes. These disasters force states to spend large sums on emergency responses and rebuilding. Services are disrupted as the state manages one crisis after another (Figure 8).
Figure 7. Planetary boundary overshoot hinders the ability of states to provide the infrastructure people need.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Figure 8. Fires in Los Angeles, California in January 2025 devastated infrastructure. It will take years to rebuild, and the area will continue to be threatened by heat and fire.
(Credit: Maxar, CC BY-NC 4.0)
Public health challenges
Public health challenges
Overshoot brings new health risks (Figure 9). Diseases like malaria and dengue spread more as temperatures rise and mosquitoes move into new areas. Heat-related illnesses increase, especially in cities with poor housing. Natural disasters force people into crowded shelters where disease spreads. Air pollution from burning fossil fuels causes breathing problems and kills millions each year (Figure 10). Toxic chemicals like PFAS, found in water across the US and Europe, harm health and cost states billions to clean up.
Figure 9. Planetary boundary overshoot hinders the ability of states to protect and improve public health.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Figure 10. An interactive map showing PM 2.5 air pollution figures for major cities around the world in 2024.
(Credit: IQ Air)
Economic instability
Economic instability
Overshoot makes resources scarcer and more costly, harming people’s work and incomes (Figure 13). Freshwater shortages and failed crops harm food systems. Extreme weather damages supply chains. Fossil fuels are more expensive as extraction gets harder and environmental regulations tighten. These increase inflation (Section 5.3.6-link coming soon), raising prices for essential goods and services beyond what many can afford. Commoners who rely on shared pastures or fishing may lose their livelihoods. An example of this was the 2022 floods in Pakistan, which damaged farms and businesses, increasing poverty (Figure 12). States must spend on aid and rebuilding, leaving less for schools or healthcare. Economic uncertainty grows, making planning harder .
Financial systems also face risk. Insurance costs rise in disaster-prone areas. Banks and investors lose money as risky assets like coastal homes or oil infrastructure lose value. Some fear these losses could cause a global financial crisis. States may need to spend more on bank and business rescues.
Figure 11. Planetary boundary overshoot hinders the ability of states to stabilise and guide economic change for people’s work, income, and future.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Figure 12. Pakistan experienced devastating floods in 2022, impacting 33 million people and causing an estimated $40 billion in damage.
(Credit: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid, CC BY 2.0)
Social and geopolitical instability
Social and geopolitical instability
Overshoot causes conflict. Scarce water or farmland leads to disputes. In East Africa, falling water supplies have caused clashes between farmers and herders. Overshoot also fuels global tensions. Many countries import food, energy, or raw materials. When supply chains break down due to drought or resource loss, states struggle to meet needs.
In 2010, droughts in Russia and Ukraine cut wheat exports and raised global food prices and food insecurity, playing a role in the Arab Spring uprisings. Rivers like the Nile and Mekong are now contested. Dams built in one country limit water in others, affecting food and health. Overfishing and pollution add to the problems. All these tensions make it harder for states to maintain peace (Figure 13 and Figure 14).
When we overshoot planetary limits, states lose the ability to function well. Crisis becomes the focus. There is less room for long-term planning or fair decision-making. States may limit free speech or weaken democracy to be able to act quickly without resistance. Inequalities grow. To protect people and nature, states must take a more active role now to regenerate ecosystems and guide economic activity to remain within planetary limits. Failing to take action now will likely cause the state itself to fail.
Figure 13. Planetary boundary overshoot hinders the ability of states to provide social stability and equity, as well as wider geopolitical security.
(Credit: Raworth and Guthier CC-BY-SA 4.0)
Figure 14. Geopolitical tensions over the Mekong River, with dams built in one country affecting freshwater access and impacting ecosystems in other countries.
(Credit: International Crisis Group)
Activity 5.2.5
Activity 5.2.5
Concept: Systems
Skills: Thinking skills (critical thinking, transfer), Research skills (information literacy)
Time: varies, depending on option
Type: Individual, pairs, or group
Option 1: Doughnut Speed Dating
Time: 30–45 minutes
Instructions coming soon!
Option 2: Ecological threats by country
Time: 40 minutes
Visit the Ecological Threat Report map
Find the country where you live, or are interested in or have a connection to.
Click on the country to find out information on it’s ecological threat level and what factors contribute to it.
Do some quick research to see if you can find out more about those threats. What type of threats are they? Are the threats widespread or in certain areas?
Consider what you learned about planetary boundary overshoot and state functions. How might the specific environmental threats in your country impact the state’s ability to carry out its various functions?
Option 3: Earth Overshoot Day
Time: 30 minutes
Visit the Earth Overshoot Day website:
Scroll down to find the Country Overshoot Days.
Find the country where you live or one where you have an interest or connection. What is its Earth Overshoot Day?
Discuss with a partner or write a short reflection:
What does this date mean?
Why is your country’s date early or late?
What could be done to move it later in the year?
Figure 15. Earth overshoot day for individual countries, showing the day the global population would overshoot if everyone lived like the average person in that country. Where does the country where you live fall?
(Credit: Earth Overshoot Day)
Option 4: Making connections to your local context
Time: 45+ minutes (depends on how long students need to research to find examples)
Search local news, city council websites, or environmental organisations for stories or reports that show how ecological overshoot is affecting your area. Look for:
Water shortages, power cuts, or transport issues due to extreme weather.
Local conflicts over land, water, or natural resources.
Health issues linked to pollution or climate impacts.
Government responses or failures to act.
Create a poster, slideshow, or short article that answers:
What is the problem?
What ecosystems are affected?
How is the local government responding?
What could be improved?
Ideas for longer activities and projects are listed in Subtopic 5.5
Checking for understanding
Checking for understanding
Coming soon!
Further exploration
Further exploration
Breaking Boundaries - a documentary about planetary boundaries on Netflix. Difficulty level: easy
Exceeding Earth's Safe Limits with Johan Rockström – In this interview, Professor Johan Rockström discusses the planetary boundaries framework, highlighting how human activities are pushing Earth's systems beyond safe operating limits. Difficulty level: medium.
Institute for New Economic Thinking Lectures on[ECO]nomics
Planetary Boundaries - [ECO]NOMICS Part 3 - In this video lecture, Professor Juliet Schor explains planetary boundaries and why we need to live within them. She counters arguments often put forward by mainstream economics that there is a tradeoff between protecting the environment and our ability to consume goods and services. Difficulty level: medium
System Change - [ECO]NOMICS Part 4 - In this video lecture, Professor Juliet Schor argues that reducing working hours reduces CO2 emissions and other negative ecological impacts, while improving human wellbeing by freeing up time for relationships, leisure, learning and other low-carbon activities. Difficulty level: medium
Global Commons Alliance - the website of an initiative to coordinate cooperation on protecting global commons. Includes the recently implemented, yearly interactive Planetary Health Check, which aims to accelerate the information feedback we need to take more decisive action to protect Earth systems. Difficulty level: medium/high
Not Built for This - a six-part podcast series from 99% Invisible about the ways that our infrastructure isn’t built for planetary boundary overshoot. The focus is stories in the United States, two particularly interesting ones with wide applicability are below. Difficulty level: medium
Maximum temperature - about the biological limits of climate adaptation
The price is wrong - about insurance risks
From City to Jungle, Indonesia’s grand plan to move its Capital - a ca. 30 minute video about Indonesia’s plan to move its capital city due to environmental threats
PFAS – Persistent Chemicals in Europe and the US - This site by French researchers maps out the presence of toxic PFAS chemicals in water sources. It shows how these human-made substances threaten public health and ecosystems. Difficulty level: medium/high
Warming World Interactive Atlas - An interactive map that allows students to explore how climate change affects temperatures, drought, sea level rise, and storm risk in different regions of the world. Difficulty level: easy
Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe – This report by the International Crisis Group explores how dam building on the Mekong River threatens ecosystems and increases tensions between countries that depend on the river. It comes with a 13 minute video about the situation. Difficulty level: high
Europe’s Pollution Divide – An interactive article from The Guardian that lets users compare pollution levels in different areas of Europe. It shows how environmental inequality affects people’s health and connects local pollution to planetary boundary overshoot. Difficulty level: easy
Sources
Sources
Global Footprint Network. (n.d.). Earth Overshoot Day. https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/
Global Systems Institute. (n.d.). Global tipping points risk dashboard. University of Exeter. https://global-tipping-points.org/risk-dashboard/
Hindustan Times. (2023). Air conditioner ownership in India increased 3-fold since 2010 due to rising heat. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/air-conditioner-ownership-in-india-increased-3-fold-since-2010-due-to-rising-heat-101698142844559.html
Institute for Economics & Peace. (2023). Ecological Threat Report 2023: Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ETR-2023-web-261023.pdf
IQAir. (2025). 2024 World air quality report. https://www.iqair.com/us/world-air-quality-report
Niranjan, A. (2025, March 11). Only seven countries worldwide meet WHO dirty air guidelines, study shows. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/11/only-seven-countries-worldwide-meet-who-dirty-air-guidelines-study-shows
Richardson, K., et al. (2023). Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances, 9(37), eadh2458. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
Shortell, D. (2024, June 14). Mexico City is running out of water—Are these cities next? National Geographic. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/major-cities-mexico-water-day-zero
Stockholm Resilience Centre. (2023, September 13). All planetary boundaries mapped out for the first time—Six of nine crossed. https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2023-09-13-all-planetary-boundaries-mapped-out-for-the-first-time-six-of-nine-crossed.html
World Health Organization. (2024, October 24). Ambient (outdoor) air pollution. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health
World Meteorological Organization. (2023, May 22). Economic costs of weather-related disasters soar but early warnings save lives. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/economic-costs-of-weather-related-disasters-soar-early-warnings-save-lives
Terminology (in order of appearance)
Terminology (in order of appearance)
Coming soon!
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