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Helpful prior knowledge and learning objectives
Helpful prior knowledge and learning objectives
Helpful prior learning:
Section 1.1.1 The economy and you, which explains what an economy is and how it is relevant to students’ lives
Section 1.1.2 The embedded economy, which explains the relationship between the economy and society and Earth’s systems
Section 5.1.1 The state as a system, which defines the state, its parts and their relationships, and some ways to classify states
Section 5.1.3 State functions, which explains the various roles of the state in providing goods and services, protecting the population, and stabilising and guiding change
Section S.1 What are systems?, which explains what a system is, the importance of systems boundaries, the difference between open and closed systems and the importance of systems thinking
Section S.2 Systems thinking patterns, which outlines the core components of systems thinking: distinctions (thing/other), systems (part/whole), relationships (action/reaction), and perspectives (point/view)
Section S.9 System traps, which explains how system structures, like reinforcing feedback, too weak or late balancing feedback, and/or pursuing flawed goals, can create persistent problems.
Learning objectives:
discuss the concept of green growth and its challenges
Many global leaders and organisations promote green growth. This means growing the economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), while reducing harm to the environment. Plans like the European Green Deal, the Paris Agreement, and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (Figure 1) support this idea.
At the 2023 Beyond Growth conference in the European Parliament, economist Timothée Parrique called green growth a ‘fairy tale.’ He said some countries claim to shrink their environmental impact, but progress is often too small, too slow, too narrowly focused on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, or doesn’t last. He compared this to someone saying they’ve lost weight after losing just 200 grams.
If GDP growth continues to be the top economic goal, can we really achieve sustainability?
Figure 1. SDG 8 includes the goal of economic growth which is a double-edged sword.
(Credit: United Nations)
What is green growth?
What is green growth?
Green growth depends on a concept called eco-economic decoupling. This means breaking the link between economic growth and environmental damage. There are two kinds (Figure 2):
relative decoupling: GDP grows faster than environmental damage. For example, emissions rise more slowly than the economy.
absolute decoupling: GDP increases, but environmental damage actually goes down.
Figure 2. Relative decoupling occurs when GDP is rising, but environmental impact like CO2 emissions is rising more slowly. Absolute decoupling requires that environmental impact decreases as GDP increases.
(Credit: Adapted from DEAL slides)
Supporters of green growth believe absolute decoupling is possible with the right technologies and policies. For example, some countries like Germany have lowered their CO₂ emissions while growing their economies (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Countries that have grown their economies while lowering CO2 emissions. The red line is consumption-based CO2 emissions, which accounts for CO2 released from goods produced elsewhere and imported into those countries.
But many experts say this is not enough. To stay within planetary boundaries, decoupling must be:
absolute (not just relative),
global (not limited to a few countries),
permanent (not short-term),
and large and fast enough to stay within all planetary boundaries.
How could green growth work?
How could green growth work?
Supporters of green growth focus on three main strategies:.
technological innovation and efficiency – new technologies, such as renewable energy, energy-efficient factories, and carbon capture (Figure 4), can help cut emissions and resource use while supporting economic growth. States often support these technologies early on to make them more affordable and widely used.
market-based policies – many businesses do not pay the full cost of their pollution. Carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes raise the cost of polluting, making cleaner options more appealing. This encourages greener choices from companies and consumers.
circular economy – rather than taking resources, using them once, and throwing them away, a circular economy encourages reuse, repair, and recycling (Figure 5). This reduces the need for new raw materials and helps reduce waste (Section 1.4.2 and Section 3.4.2). Some states make rules that require products to be easier to fix or include recycled parts.
These strategies try to make sustainability cheaper and easier for businesses and consumers.
Figure 4. A carbon capture plant in Iceland.
(Credit: licensed from Adobe Stock)
What are the challenges to green growth?
What are the challenges to green growth?
While green growth sounds promising, there are some serious concerns.
Decoupling is too slow
Decoupling is too slow
Some high-income countries show signs of absolute decoupling for CO₂. But the reductions are often not fast or large enough to meet climate targets. To limit global warming to 2°C, emissions must fall far faster than they are now (Figures 6a-6c).
Figure 6a. Decoupling has to happen much faster to stay within planetary boundaries. The green line shows faster, larger decoupling sufficient for staying within planetary boundaries.
(Credit: Adapted from DEAL slides)
Figure 6b. The bold red dotted line represents the current pace of CO2 emissions reductions, compared to the bold blue dotted line which is the pace of reduction we need to keep global warming at or under 2°C from the pre-Industrial period.
(Credit: Vogel and Hickel, 2023)
Figure 6c. No high-income nation is on track for sufficient absolute decoupling of CO2 and GDP
(Credit: Vogel and Hickel, 2023)
Also, most examples focus on emissions from within a country’s borders. But if a country imports many goods from polluting factories in other countries, the country’s true global impact may still be rising. This is called cost shifting. It can make decoupling look stronger than it is.
Some decoupling is also short-lived. Emissions may drop during a recession or when switching to cleaner fuels, but later rise again. This is called recoupling.
Green growth focuses too much on CO2
Green growth focuses too much on CO2
Most green growth plans focus on cutting CO2 emissions. But this narrow carbon tunnel vision (Figure 7) ignores other problems like biodiversity loss, water shortages, and soil damage.
Even clean energy like solar and wind needs large amounts of land and metals like lithium and copper. These are often mined in poorer countries, harming ecosystems and local communities.
So while emissions might fall, total material use might not. No country has shown absolute decoupling of GDP from material use, which is essential for protecting biodiversity. In fact, since 1970, the world has lost over 70% of its biodiversity. If we keep growing our use of materials, we are still damaging Earth systems, even if carbon emissions fall.
Figure 7. Carbon tunnel-vision
(Credit: Deivanayagam and Osborne)
Jevons paradox: Efficiency can lead to more output, resource use and waste
Jevons paradox: Efficiency can lead to more output, resource use and waste
Making something more efficient, enabling more output with less input, doesn’t always reduce total resource use or waste. Jevons paradox is a system trap (Section S.9) where greater efficiency makes something cheaper, leading to more use (Figure 8). For example, if cars use less fuel, people may drive more. If renewable energy is cheap, it may be added on top of fossil fuels instead of replacing them. If the economy keeps growing, even efficient technologies can lead to more production and resource use overall.
Figure 8. Jevons Paradox, where greater efficiency lowers costs, often driving higher output, and increasing resource use instead of reducing it.
Digital infrastructure has impacts
Digital infrastructure has impacts
Digital tools are often seen as sustainable because they reduce the need for paper, travel, or materials. But they require massive data centres that use large amounts of electricity and water (Figure 9). Artificial intelligence (AI) uses especially high computing power. If this energy comes from fossil fuels, the environmental damage can be large. As our digital lives grow, so do these impacts.
Green growth sounds promising, but it’s not happening fast enough or widely enough to solve the ecological crisis. Cleaner technologies, circular systems, and smart policies help—but they won’t be enough unless rich countries also cut overall production and consumption. Wealthier nations use far more resources per person, while poorer ones still need to grow to meet basic needs. This means high-income countries must reduce their resource use.
Green growth focuses on better tools and greater efficiency. But to stay within Earth’s limits and ensure fairness, we need to rethink our economic goals. If we focus only on green growth, we may delay deeper changes needed to escape the growth system trap (Section 5.3.2). Waiting too long risks passing ecological tipping points we cannot reverse.
Activity 5.3.1
Activity 5.3.1
Concept: Systems
Skills: Thinking skills (transfer)
Time: varies depending on option
Type: Individual, pairs, or group
Option 1: Analysing decoupling data
Time: 20-25 minutes
Access these graphs showing changes in CO₂ emissions and GDP from Our World in Data. Choose one country from the list in the right-hand side.
Look closely at how the country’s CO₂ emissions change as GDP increases.
Do emissions rise, fall, or stay the same as GDP increases?
Decide if the country shows:
– No decoupling
– Relative decoupling
– Absolute decouplingWrite one sentence explaining your answer using evidence from the graph.
If more countries achieve absolute decoupling of CO₂ emissions from GDP, does that mean green growth is succeeding? Why or why not? Write 2–3 sentences to explain your reasoning.Compare your findings with a partner. Did you choose the same country? If not, how do the trends differ? Do you agree on what decoupling means for green growth?
Option 2: Interpreting an illustration
Time: 25-30 minutes
Work with a partner to explore Figure 9: an illustration showing the tension between economic growth and green strategies.
Study the illustration carefully. Identify the different parts.
How do the parts relate to one another?
What message is the image trying to communicate?
Choose a title for the illustration that captures its meaning.
Write one short annotation (a label or comment) to add to the image.
Figure 9. What idea is this illustration trying to show?
(Credit: Beyond the Roadmdap)
Then click the arrow to see how the artist titled and annotated the illustration. How does your version compare?
Figure 10. The endless escalator of economic growth prevents our good ideas from bringing us back within planetary boundaries.
(Credit: Beyond the Roadmap)
Option 3: Green tech trade-offs
Time: 30 minutes
Work in pairs or small groups. Choose one of the following green technologies:
solar panels
electric vehicles
carbon capture
Answer these questions together (students may have to do a short internet search to find out more:
What problem is this technology trying to solve?
What materials or energy does it require?
Could this lead to new environmental or social problems?
Follow-up: Each group shares their benefit and challenge with the class. As a class, reflect: Can technology alone solve our environmental problems?
allow a quick internet search.
Each group shares one “benefit” and one “challenge” of their chosen technology. Emphasise the idea that technologies help, but cannot replace reducing overall consumption.
Option 4: Production vs. consumption-based emissions
Time: 30 minutes
Access these graphs from Our World in Data showing the difference between where CO₂ is produced and where it is consumed.
Choose two countries to compare (for example, China and the UK).
Look at how their production and consumption emissions differ.
Why might a country have higher production emissions than consumption emissions—or the opposite?
Write a short explanation (3–4 sentences) that uses examples from the graph and your own reasoning.
Share your ideas in small groups. What does this difference mean for judging how green a country really is?
Ideas for longer activities and projects are listed in Subtopic 5.5
Checking for understanding
Checking for understanding
Coming soon!
Further exploration
Further exploration
Ellen MacArthur Foundation - the organisation’s website has excellent resources to further explore strategies and examples of circular economy around the world. The website is well worth exploring. Difficulty level: medium
They recently produced three short videos to address each of the three circular economy principles. Difficulty level: easy
Various online courses in circular economy. Difficulty level: varies
The Circularity Challenge: Expect Disruption and Get Out in Front of It - a Bain Company report on the challenges of the circular economy for businesses. Difficulty level: medium
The Impossibilities of the Circular Economy - An illustrated slideshow about why circular economy strategies are unlikely to be enough to keep us within planetary boundaries. Difficulty level: easy
Best of #BeyondGrowth 2023 – Timothée Parrique - This ca. video captures some of the most powerful arguments made by economist Timothée Parrique at the European Parliament’s Beyond Growth conference. He explains why green growth might not be enough and why we may need to rethink growth itself. Difficulty level: medium.
Five Times Faster: Rethinking the science, economics, and diplomacy of climate change - In this 75 minute talk based on his book Five Times Faster, climate policy expert Simon Sharpe challenges the way science, economics, and diplomacy currently approach climate change. He argues that we need much faster systems change—and explains why current methods fall short. Difficulty level: medium
Sources
Sources
DEAL. 7. Thrive beyond growth, Version 1.0 November 2024. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/16dH5hAeX7h3ynjd-nzkbywEebdXDdWe57lpoBw7M598/edit#slide=id.p98
Haberl, H., et al. (2020, June 11). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: Synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6), 065003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
Hickel, J. (2020). Less is More. London: William Heinemann.
Parrique, T. (2019). The political economy of degrowth [Doctoral dissertation, Université Clermont Auvergne & Stockholms universitet]. HAL Open Science. https://theses.hal.science/tel-02499463/document
Parrique, T., et al. (2019). Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability. European Environmental Bureau. https://eeb.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked.pdf
Parrique, T. (2023, May 17). Green growth is a fairy tale – Beyond Growth 2023 [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/vij3Q6bE6X4
Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st century economist. London: Penguin Random House.
Sharpe, S. (2021). Simon Sharpe - Five Times Faster: Rethinking the science, economics, and diplomacy of climate change. [Video]. INET Oxford. YouTube. https://youtu.be/5CqH1lMtLKY
Vogel, J., & Hickel, J. (2023). Is green growth happening? An empirical analysis of achieved versus Paris-compliant CO₂–GDP decoupling in high-income countries. The Lancet Planetary Health, 7(9), e759–e769. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00174-2
Terminology (in order of appearance)
Terminology (in order of appearance)
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