5.4.1 Two scenarios: Too Little, Too Late and The Giant Leap

Samiha was born in 2020, during a turning point for humanity. Now it’s 2050, and she wakes to quiet streets in Dhaka. Her neighbourhood, once filled with traffic and smog, is calm and green. New flood defences protect the city.

As a child, Samiha remembered the fear of rising waters, dirty air, and anxious news reports. But things changed. Her parents found work in a solar power plant. Her mother could breathe freely again. Their informal settlement was turned into safe, beautiful homes, planned with the community. Samiha now works as a scientist helping to improve the food system. She volunteers at a local children’s centre and helps care for a lush urban garden. A universal basic dividend from the Citizens’ Fund gives families more time for each other and for the planet.

But Samiha knows this wasn’t the only possible future. Things could have gone very differently. Society chose a path of cooperation, fairness, and regeneration. The good news is that we still have that choice.

Figure 1. Future visioning is a way to understand the possibilities in front of us, like the story of Samiha in Bangladesh..

(Credit: Earth4All, CC BY-NC 4.0)

The future isn’t set. It depends on the choices we make. Scientists and economists use scenarios to explore how those choices might shape what comes next. Scenarios are not predictions. They are stories based on current trends, real data, and decisions we could take. Scenarios help us understand the results of different actions. They also help people decide what kind of future they want, and how to make it happen.

In 2022, a group of scientists, economists, and policymakers launched Earth for All. It is built on earlier work by the Club of Rome, who used the World3 computer model in 1972 to explore how population, industry, and resources affect the future. Now, an updated systems model, called Earth4All, shows how our economies interact with Earth’s systems through feedback loops, delays, and tipping points.

Using this model, the team developed two scenarios: Too Little, Too Late and The Giant Leap. These stories show how our actions today could shape life in 2050 and beyond.

This scenario shows what could happen if states, communities, and individuals act together, with courage and speed. Instead of taking small steps, they choose a new path based on fairness, wellbeing, and care for Earth.

The Earth4All model shows that the next 10 to 20 years are critical. If we act soon, the Giant Leap is still within reach. But if we delay, some problems may grow too big to solve. Climate tipping points like melting polar ice or changes in ocean currents could bring irreversible damage. Rising inequality could further erode trust and make it harder for societies to cooperate.

In both scenarios, the state has a central role. In Too Little, Too Late, governments act too slowly and leave decisions to markets and large corporations. Problems worsen. In The Giant Leap, governments take the lead (Section 5.1.6). They invest in health, education, clean energy, and protection from crises. These changes would cost just 2 to 4% of global income each year—a small amount compared to the benefits.

States must also involve the public. People need to stay informed, organise in their communities, and call for action. Strong leadership matters, but it works best when guided by public participation.

Most people already support the kind of changes Earth4All describes. In a global 2024 survey across 17 countries, more than 70% of people supported taxing the super-rich, guaranteeing basic incomes, investing in public services, and protecting nature (Figure 4).

The future remains open for The Giant Leap, but not for long. The path we choose today will shape the world for generations.

Concept: Systems, Regeneration

Skills: Thinking skills (creative and critical thinking)

Time: varies, depending on the option

Type: Individual, pairs, group

Option 1: Exploring more Earth for All stories

Time: 30 minutes

Visit the Earth for All website and explore the short stories about four girls—Samiha, Rosa, Aada, and Layla. These stories are examples of future visioning. They help us imagine what life could look like in the year 2050 depending on the choices made today.

1. Read at least two stories. You can work alone or with a partner.

2. For each story, discuss or write answers to the following:

   • What kind of future does the girl experience?

   • What economic, environmental, or social changes have shaped her life?

   • What choices do you think society must have made to create this future?

3. Write a short response (about 150 words) imagining what you would like your own future to look like in 2050. Include what changes you hope to see and what actions you think we should take now to get there.

Option 2: Exploring the Earth for All 2024 Survey results

Time: 30 minutes

In 2024, Earth for All ran a global survey asking people what changes they support for a better future. The results offer insight into how people around the world feel about fairness, government action, and the environment.

1. Visit the 2024 Global Survey results page.
   Scroll through the findings and take notes on:

• One result that surprised you

• One result that you strongly agree with

• One result you would like to know more about

2. In small groups, compare your answers. Why might people in different countries support or reject the same idea?

3. As a class, make a list of the top five actions that had the most support in the survey. Do you think your community would agree? Why or why not?

Option 3: Interpreting the Earth4All Systems Map

Time: 40+ minutes (depends on how much experience students have with systems diagrams covered in Section S.4 and Section S.5)

The Earth4All systems map shows how the economy, society, and Earth systems are connected. Understanding systems maps is a key skill for anyone learning about economic change.

1. Examine this simplified system diagram of the Earth4All model (Figure 5). If possible, you could project the diagram in large form on a screen for the class.

2. Divide into small groups. Each group should choose one part of the diagram. Circle the elements of the diagram that each group will address. Some overlap between groups is helpful.

3. In your group:

   • Identify key parts and connections in your section of the diagram.
     Discuss how feedback loops work in this system. Where do problems reinforce each other? Where could positive change start?

   • Prepare a short presentation to explain your part of the system to the rest of the class.

4. As a class, try to describe the full system together. How do the different parts influence one another?

Ideas for longer activities and projects are listed in Subtopic 5.5

• Earth for All - A book and website exploring scenarios for our collective future using research from new computer models about the impact of different actions and policies on human and ecological wellbeing. The scientist-authors present five big impact changes we can make to meet the needs all within planetary boundaries in a single generation. Difficulty level: medium

  • Earth for All stories about four girls, each with two futures – These short, illustrated stories imagine the lives of four girls from different parts of the world in 2050. They show how today’s decisions could shape different futures and help us reflect on what kind of world we want to live in. Difficulty level: easy

  • Stories of the Future Global Challenge - a collection of stories from young people about their future, submitted to the Earth for All project for publication. Difficulty level: easy

  • Uncovering global attitudes to systems change – This 2024 global survey shows what people in various countries think about major changes like taxing the rich, protecting nature, and providing basic income. It helps us understand how ready the public is for bold economic transformation.

  • Earth for All country level reports - These reports explore what Earth for All's big transformations might look like in individual countries. Difficulty level: medium

  • Earth for All Resource Hub - more detailed information on approaches that support The Giant Leap scenario, including: citizens’ assemblies, managing natural resources, universal basic dividend, wealth tax, and the concept of the wellbeing economy.

  • Earth4All simulator – This interactive tool lets you test what happens when you apply different policies, like increasing education, reducing inequality, or switching to clean energy. It’s a way to explore how the system works and see what kinds of changes make the biggest difference. Difficulty level: high

• Tipping Points: The true story of the Limits to Growth - a fascinating 3-episode podcast about the original research behind The Limits to Growth and how the research was undermined by economists, business and politics. Difficulty level: medium

• The 89 Percent Project - 80-89% of the world’s people want their governments to be doing more to address climate change. This project aims to tell their stories to help trigger social tipping points and new narratives on state action for people and the planet. Difficulty level: easy

Dixson-Declève, S. et al. (2022). Earth for All: A survival guide for humanity. Club of Rome. New Society Publishers. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369144092_Earth_for_All

Earth4All. (2024). Global survey 2024. https://earth4all.life/global-survey-2024/#full-data

Earth4All. (n.d.). Four girls, two futures. https://earth4all.life/four-girls-two-futures/

Feder, C., Callegari, B. & Collste, D. The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development. J Evol Econ 34, 351–374 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6

Coming soon!