Embedded Files
Helpful prior learning and learning objectives
Helpful prior learning and learning objectives
Helpful prior learning:
Section 1.1.1 The economy and you which explains what an economy is and how it is relevant to students’ lives
Section 1.1.2 The embedded economy, which explains the relationship between the economy and society and Earth’s systems.
Section S.1 What are systems?, which explains what a system is, the importance of systems boundaries, the difference between open and closed systems and the importance of systems thinking
Section S.2 Systems thinking patterns, which outlines the core components of systems thinking: distinctions (thing/other), systems (part/whole), relationships (action/reaction), and perspectives (point/view)
Section S.3 Systems diagrams and models, which explains the systems thinking in some familiar information tools as well as the symbols used to represent parts/wholes, relationships and perspectives.
Section S.5 Causal loops, feedback and tipping points, which explains the feedback loops that can stabilise or destabilise systems.
Learning objectives:
Discuss various systems traps including: escalation, success to the successful, fixes that fail (policy resistance), overuse of unmanaged open-access resources, and pursuing the wrong goal.
In the early 20th century, industrial farming increased food production. Farmers, often with the help of states that provided subsidies, used chemical fertilisers and pesticides, to boost crop yields. But over time, soil lost fertility, requiring even more fertilisers. Pesticides disrupted ecosystems, leading to new pest outbreaks. Farmers became dependent on chemicals, unable to stop without damaging crops.
This is a system trap—when a system’s structure causes persistent problems. Many traps emerge from reinforcing feedback loops, weak or delayed balancing feedback, or flawed system goals. But every trap also contains opportunities for redesigning systems to support social and ecological systems.
Figure 1. Monocultures and excessive chemicals have depleted soil fertility, reduced biodiversity, and made farmers more dependent on agrichemical firms, weakening resilience.
(Credit: Serega, licensed from AdobeStock)
How do reinforcing feedback loops create system traps?
How do reinforcing feedback loops create system traps?
Some traps happen when reinforcing feedback loops make problems worse. A small change strengthens itself over time, pushing the system toward crisis. Common examples include escalation and success to the successful.
Trap 1: Escalation
Escalation happens when competitors keep trying to outdo each other. A reinforcing feedback loop makes each response more extreme. This follows a simple agent-based system rule: "If another increases their effort, I must increase mine."
One example is the race for artificial intelligence (AI). Tech companies compete to develop ever more powerful AI, pushing forward without fully understanding the risks—such as misinformation, job loss, and security threats. Safety checks are ignored because slowing down means falling behind (Section S.6).
Another example is a military arms race. When one country builds more weapons, others do the same. The cycle continues, increasing military spending, but not necessarily security. The same pattern appears in advertising wars and price wars, where businesses cut prices or spend more on advertising to compete, often harming their own profits and leading to unhealthy cost-cutting relationships with stakeholders like employees and suppliers.
Figure 2. Escalation happens when competitors keep trying to outdo each other. This creates a reinforcing feedback loop (a) of intensifying competition, like advertising in city centres (b).
(Credit: Helena Lopes, Pexels license)
If escalation continues, collapse follows. A company in a price war may go bankrupt. A country in an arms race may spend too much on weapons and not enough on other needs. In AI, reckless development could harm societies, economies, and ecosystems. To stop escalation, balancing forces like state regulation or industry cooperation are needed. Without them, the cycle continues until failure.
Trap 2. Success to the successful: The wealth trap
Some systems help those already ahead while making it harder for others to succeed. Over time, resources and power concentrate in fewer hands.
Wealth is an example. Rich families can afford better education, healthcare, and living conditions, creating better opportunities for their children. Meanwhile, poorer families struggle to access the same opportunities. Economic inequality widens over generations.
In business, large companies expand, invest in technology, and lower prices, making it hard for smaller firms to compete. This reduces competition, creating oligopolies and monopolies where just a few or one business controls a market and leading to higher prices (Section 3.2.4).
This reinforcing loop gets stronger with political capture. The rich and large corporations lobby states to make policies that benefit them—lower taxes, weaker regulations, and barriers to new competitors (Figure 3). According to Oxfam (2025), 60% of billionaire wealth comes from inheritance, monopoly power, or corrupt political influence. This reinforces inequality, leading to social unrest and weakened democracies (Section 5.2.3 - coming soon).
Figure 3. Reinforcing feedback loops showing how increases in business size and market power lead to economies of scale and higher profits which lead to further increased market power (right) and political power (left).
Balancing strategies can prevent this trap. States can ensure universal access to healthcare and education, create and enforce antitrust laws to maintain competition, and limit corporate lobbying. Progressive taxation—where those with higher wealth and incomes pay a higher tax percentage—helps redistribute resources, creating a fairer, more resilient society.
Why do balancing feedback loops fail?
Why do balancing feedback loops fail?
Some balancing feedback exists but it may not be strong enough or work fast enough. doesn’t work fast enough. Two common traps are fixes that fail and overuse of unmanaged open-access resources.
Trap 3: The fix that fails (policy resistance)
A solution to a problem may seem helpful at first, but later make things worse.
A key example is Jevons paradox (Figure 4). In the 19th century, new technologies made steam engines more efficient, reducing the amount of coal used per unit of power. But this also reduced the cost of using coal and businesses had incentives to use even more of it to increase output. Instead of reducing coal use, more efficient technologies increased coal use overall.
Figure 4. Jevons Paradox – Greater efficiency lowers costs, often driving higher output and reinforcing resource use instead of reducing it.
This trap makes climate action difficult, especially in a system focused on maximising business profits and economic growth. When businesses save money through efficiency, they often reinvest the money to expand their output even more, increasing resource use. Today, fuel-efficient cars lower travel costs, so people drive more, keeping fuel use high. More efficient solar panels reduce energy costs, but lower costs of production encourage more output with the result that renewable energies are being added on top of fossil fuels rather than replacing them (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Global primary energy consumption by source since 1800. Renewable energy is added on top of fossil fuels, rather than replacing them.
(Credit: Our World in Data)
To address this system trap, solutions must go beyond technological efficiency. Policies should limit resource extraction, tax resource use and high consumption, and promote repair, sharing, and reuse in the circular economy instead of encouraging endless production. Some cities, like Edinburgh and The Hague, have banned advertising for products with high carbon footprints like cruises, flying and fossil fuels to change social norms on resource use.
Figure 6. Advertising encourages consumption, so cities like Edinburgh, Scotland are banning ads for high CO2 emitting products to change social norms. (Credit: Gail Frederick, CC BY 2.0)
Trap 4: Overuse of unmanaged open-access resources - balancing feedback is too late
Some resources, like fish in the ocean, are open-access—available to anyone. Without rules, people take too much, leading to collapse.
A classic case is the Newfoundland cod fishery. For centuries, cod seemed unlimited. More fishers meant more revenue, encouraging more people to fish and creating a reinforcing loop. But as fish stocks declined, new technologies—radar, larger boats, better nets—helped fishers keep catching more, hiding the balancing feedback of declining fish stocks which should have signaled them to stop. Eventually, cod populations crashed and so did the fish catch (Figure 7). In 1992, Canada banned cod fishing, but far too late. Thousands lost their jobs, and coastal communities suffered.
Figure 7. Five centuries of cod catches in Eastern Canada. By the 1970s cod populations and the cod catch had collapsed. (Credit: Our World in Data)
To prevent this, balancing feedback must come early. Solutions include quotas (catch limits), community management (local agreements on fair use), and protected areas (zones where resource use is restricted to allow recovery). Managing open-access resources can prevent collapse before it's too late.
Trap 5: How can a system deteriorate when it pursues the wrong goal?
Trap 5: How can a system deteriorate when it pursues the wrong goal?
A system’s goal shapes decisions (Section S.8). If the goal is flawed, the system produces harmful outcomes.
Imagine a school that wants to improve education. It focuses on test scores, assuming high scores mean good learning. But teachers then ‘teach to the test,’ neglecting creativity, critical thinking, and non-tested subjects. Test scores rise, but real learning suffers.
The same happens in economies. Many governments focus on growing gross domestic product (GDP)—the total value of goods and services produced in an economy. But GDP growth often prioritises output over well-being. Policies favour activities that boost GDP, even if they cause harm. Deforestation increases GDP through timber sales but destroys ecosystems. Factories raise output while polluting communities. Treating all economic activity as positive encourages short-term profits at the cost of long-term health and resilience. Subtopic 5.x (coming soon) discusses the problems with GDP and alternative goals in greater detail.
Businesses also fall into this trap. If profit growth is the goal, they may cut costs in ways that harm workers, communities, and ecosystems. But businesses can be designed differently—changing purpose, networks, ownership, finance, and governance to support regeneration instead of extraction (Subtopic 3.3).
Many countries are exploring alternative postgrowth strategies to focus on improving human wellbeing in ways that may limit economic growth and pressure on ecosystems, such as reducing working hours, providing Universal Basic Services (UBS), supporting relocalisation and bioregionalism. These and other policies are discussed in Subtopic 5.x. - coming soon!
Remember that system traps don’t just happen by accident—they emerge from the way systems are designed and maintained. Some traps persist because they benefit powerful groups, while others continue simply because people don’t realise there’s an alternative. The good news is that once we recognise these patterns, we can challenge them and redesign systems to support human and wider ecological wellbeing and resilience.
Activity S.9
Activity S.9
Concept: Systems
Skills: Thinking skills (transfer)
Time: 30-40 minutes
Type: Individuals, pairs, or groups
Option 1: Recognising system traps
Below are five scenarios, each representing a different system trap. Read each one carefully, then answer the following questions either alone, with a partner or in a small group. Clicking on the arrow will reveal sample answers.
Which system trap does this scenario represent?
What reinforcing or balancing feedback loops are involved?
How could the system be changed to avoid or escape the trap?
Scenarios:
Social media algorithms and polarisation
Online platforms use AI to keep users engaged. When someone interacts with a post, the algorithm recommends more extreme content. Competing platforms refine their algorithms in the same way. Over time, users become more polarized, making open discussion harder.University admissions and inequality
Top universities favor students with strong extracurriculars and internships. Wealthier students can afford tutors, unpaid internships, and leadership programs, giving them an advantage. Over time, the same privileged groups keep getting admitted, reinforcing inequality.Traffic congestion and road expansion
A city expands roads to reduce traffic. At first, congestion improves, but more people choose to drive, filling the new space. Soon, traffic is as bad as before. The city builds even more roads, but the cycle continues.Groundwater depletion in farming
Farmers rely on deep wells to irrigate crops. Since groundwater is freely available, each farmer pumps as much as needed. Over time, the water table drops, making it harder and more expensive to access. Eventually, wells run dry, forcing farms to shut down or relocate.Health care and patient outcomes
A hospital wants to improve care, so it tracks the number of patients treated per day. To meet targets, doctors reduce time with each patient. The hospital appears successful on paper, but real patient health declines.Global corporate tax competition
Countries lower corporate tax rates to attract businesses. When one country cuts taxes, others do the same to stay competitive. Over time, tax revenue falls everywhere, reducing public investment in schools, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Social media algorithms and polarisation
Trap: Escalation – Platforms compete for engagement, pushing more extreme content.
Feedback Loops: Reinforcing – More engagement with extreme content leads to more recommendations of it.
Fix: States could introduce regulations banning social media tactics that addict and polarise viewers.
University admissions and inequality
Trap: Success to the successful – Wealthier students have advantages that help them stay ahead.
Feedback Loops: Reinforcing – Privileged students get better opportunities, making it easier for them to succeed.
Fix: Universities could offer more scholarships, remove unpaid internships as a requirement, and broaden admission criteria.
Traffic congestion and road expansion
Trap: Fix That Fails – Expanding roads encourages more driving, keeping congestion the same.
Feedback Loops: Balancing loop fails – More roads should ease traffic, but a reinforcing loop leads to more driving, canceling out the benefits.
Fix: Cities could invest in public transport, cycling paths, and congestion fees instead of expanding roads.
Groundwater depletion in farming
Trap: Overuse of open-access, unmanaged resources – Individual farmers take as much water as they need, but collectively, they deplete the resource.
Feedback Loops: Reinforcing – More pumping lowers the water table, making it harder to access, leading to even more pumping. The balancing loop (water running out) comes after the system collapses.
Fix: Water use could be managed with quotas, shared irrigation systems, or pricing policies that encourage conservation.
Health care and patient outcomes
Trap: Seeking the Wrong Goal – Tracking patient numbers doesn’t improve actual health.
Feedback Loops: Reinforcing – The system rewards fast treatment, leading to rushed care and worse outcomes.
Fix: Hospitals could prioritise patient well-being by measuring recovery rates and long-term health instead.
Global corporate tax competition
Trap: Escalation – Countries cut taxes to attract business, reducing public funds.
Feedback Loops: Reinforcing – One country’s tax cut forces others to follow, driving tax rates lower and lower.
Fix: International agreements could set minimum tax rates to prevent harmful competition.
Checking for understanding
Checking for understanding
Further exploration
Further exploration
The Story of Solutions - A video that explores how to achieve a more sustainable economy, starting with choosing better goals. Difficulty level: easy
Kate Raworth on Growth - A video explaining the problem with economies that focus on growth and how we need to shift our goals to meet the needs of all within planetary boundaries. Difficulty level: medium
Inequality Inc.: How Corporate Power Divides Our World – A report that examines how corporate influence drives global inequality and calls for stronger public action to create a fairer economy. Difficulty level: medium.
The Hague Becomes First City in the World to Outlaw Fossil Fuel Advertising - An Earth.Org article on the decision in The Hague to ban fossil fuel advertising, along with information on the wider context and role of the public relations (PR) industry in promoting fossil fuels. Difficulty level: easy
European Agrifood Systems Map - An interactive causal loop with feedback map that shows how farming, food supply chains, and the environment are connected in Europe. It helps explain challenges like how industrial farming affects nature, who controls food production, and how policies shape the system. The map was created for European systems, but much of it also applies to other regions’ agriculture systems. Difficulty level: medium.
Sources
Sources
Arellano, J. P. (2025, February 13). Degrowth is popular! Explore Degrowth. https://explore.degrowth.net/degrowth/degrowth-is-popular/
Austin, Duncan. (2024, August). Rethinking Sustainability: Insights from Systems Thinking [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/mk_ceiP7JyE
Economist Intelligence Unit. (2025, February 27). Democracy Index 2024: Age of conflict. The Economist Group. https://www.eiu.com/n/democracy-index-2024/
Igini, M. (2024, September 17). The Hague becomes first city in the world to outlaw fossil fuel advertising, months after UN chief call to stop fueling disinformation. Earth.Org. https://earth.org/the-hague-becomes-first-city-in-the-world-to-outlaw-fossil-fuel-advertising-months-after-un-chief-call-to-stop-fueling-disinformation/
Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in systems: A primer. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.
Monbiot, G. (2017, May 31). Public luxury for all or private luxury for some: This is the choice we face. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/31/private-wealth-labour-common-space
Taneja, A., Kamande, A., Guharay Gomez, C., Abed, D., Lawson, M., & Mukhia, N. (2025, January 20). Takers not makers: The unjust poverty and unearned wealth of colonialism. Oxfam International. https://oi-files-d8-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2025-01/English%20-%20Davos%20Full%20Report%202025.pdf
Terminology (in order of appearance)
Terminology (in order of appearance)
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